Free PDF The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate (Princeton Science Library), by David Archer
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The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate (Princeton Science Library), by David Archer
Free PDF The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate (Princeton Science Library), by David Archer
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Review
"Winner of the 2009 Walter P. Kistler Award, The Foundation For the Future""One of The Australian's Best Books of 2009""Selected to appear on ClimateUnited's Booklist of Top Books on Climate Change""Worried about warming but confused about carbon? Try [The Long Thaw], which tells you nearly everything you need to know with down-to-earth clarity and brevity."---Evan Hadingham, PBS's NOVA blog"Archer . . . presents the dire and long-lasting consequences of our fossil-fuel dependency but concludes that it's not too late for us to go a different, better way."---Avital Binshtock, Sierra Club Blog"Archer has perfectly pitched answers to the most basic questions about global warming while providing a sound basis for understanding the complex issues frequently misrepresented by global warming skeptics. With a breezy, conversational style, he breaks complex concepts into everyday analogies. Divided into three parts--the Present, the Past and the Future--Archer provides a complete picture of climate change now, in the past, and what we can expect in years and centuries to come. His models, though conservative, imply that humans won't survive the environmental consequences of severe warming over the next thousand years. While Archer is neither grim nor pessimistic, he is forthright about what's at stake, and what must do to avert catastrophe." (Publishers Weekly)"It is comprehensive, well written and includes numerous useful vignettes from climate history. Archer leads the reader to a simple yet accurate picture of climate changes, ranging from geological time scales to current warming, ice ages and prospects for the future."---Susan Solomon, Nature"The Long Thaw is written for anyone who wishes to know what cutting-edge science tells us about the modern issue of global warming and its effects on the pathways of atmospheric chemistry, as well as global and regional temperatures, rainfall, sea level, Arctic sea-ice coverage, melting of the continental ice sheets, cyclonic storm frequency and intensity and ocean acidification. This book will also appeal to scientists who want a clear and unbiased picture of the global-warming problem and how it may progress in the future. It encapsulates Archer's own efforts in the field of climate research, which I found invaluable."---Fred T. Mackenzie, Nature Geoscience"The power of Archer's book is to show that such [climate] changes, which we can bring about through just a few centuries of partying on carbon, can only be matched by the earth itself over vastly longer periods. . . . It's the kind of perspective we need in order to realize how insane we're being."---Chris Mooney, American Prospect"Global climate change is the subject of thousands of books; this short volume is distinctive in multiple ways. Archer is a geophysicist (and a look-alike--except for stubble--for late British actor David Niven), whose scientific background lets him place climate change in the context of its variations in geological history. He points out that the Earth's orbital cycles had poised it to enter a new ice age when human influences began to override natural forces."---F.T. Manheim, Choice
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From the Back Cover
"In this short book, David Archer gives us the latest on climate change research, and skillfully tells the climate story that he helped to discover: generations beyond our grandchildren's grandchildren will inherit atmospheric changes and an altered climate as a result of our current decisions about fossil-fuel burning. Not only are massive climate changes coming if we humans continue on our current path, but many of these changes will last for millennia. To make predictions about the future, we rely on research into the deep past, and Archer is at the forefront of this field: paleoclimatology. This is the book for anyone who wishes to really understand what cutting-edge science tells us about the effects we are having, and will have, on our future climate."--Richard B. Alley, Pennsylvania State University"This is the best book about carbon dioxide and climate change that I have read. David Archer knows what he is talking about."--James Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies"Books on climate change tend to focus on what is expected to happen this century, which will certainly be large, but they often neglect the even larger changes expected to take place over many centuries. The Long Thaw looks at climate effects beyond the twenty-first century, and its focus on the long-term carbon cycle, rather than just climate change, is unique."--Jeffrey T. Kiehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research"A great book. What sets it apart is that it expands the discussion of the impacts of global warming beyond the next century and convincingly describes the effects that are projected for the next few thousand years. What also sets it apart is how deeply it takes general readers into the scientific issues of global warming by using straightforward explanations of often complex ideas."--Peter J. Fawcett, University of New Mexico
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Product details
Series: Princeton Science Library (Book 44)
Paperback: 200 pages
Publisher: Princeton University Press; Reprint edition (March 22, 2016)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0691169063
ISBN-13: 978-0691169064
Product Dimensions:
5.5 x 0.5 x 8.5 inches
Shipping Weight: 9.9 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.1 out of 5 stars
43 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#340,264 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
This is a very well written book from an Oceanographer’s perspective. Archer does an excellent job of keeping political and alternative energy solutions out of his argument and instead focuses on the science of the climate change issue. I wouldn’t recommend this to someone who is trying to get into the specific details about climate change, but this is a great piece for someone who is interested in knowing more than “it’s getting hotter outside so there must be global warmingâ€.Archer divides the book into 3 categories, present, past and future. The present conversation gives you a snapshot at the current situation. Archer again keeps his arguments on point and is able to give information that is relevant and most sought after in the climate change argument. The past portion of the book is also well done by giving a historical picture of the how the Earth goes through various cooling and warming cycles. Most of this portion gives the reader an understanding as to why climate change is such a difficult topic and how it is not a yes or no question. The future portion of the book is also very telling in that there are so many different possibilities of what could happen. But from Archer’s perspective the ocean will be able to dictate how climate will change either warming or cooling.Overall I thought this was a well-written book. Because of the nature of climate change, it is already close to being obsolete but it is interesting to see how the climate change debate has changed in a few short years. I would have liked to see more of the science behind the findings because that can help the reader fully understand the argument. There were a few other errors made that have been pointed out by other reviewers, but overall a well-written book that would be a great addition to any climate change library.
The first thing you will notice upon receiving this book is how small it is. It is almost a pamphlet. However, in spite of that, it is packed full of interesting observations. By now, I have read stacks of books on global warming, and in many ways, this one follows the same general plot line as most of them. The author of this book is an expert on oceanography and as such, the best parts of the book are the ones that draw from that field of study. The author divides the book up into different sections that look at the past history of the planet as well as the prospects for the future and while he does bring a lot of his own expertise in, he also draws on research from other disciplines. In many ways, this book fits the vein of recent books on the topic of global warming in that it acknowledges both that contributions to warming are proceeding apace and that predictions for things like sea level rise have probably been underestimated. In other words, he shares in some of the resignation that other experts have begun to allow to creep into their books. The only knock I have against the book is that here and there, he plays a bit loose with terminology or characterizations of things like evolution and these could be seized upon by science deniers to claim the author isn't very good. However, when talking about actual climate issues, he seems to be on top of the latest research and makes excellent observations.As can be seen from the title, the overriding theme of the book is how current practices are putting into place effects that will probably last many thousands of years. While other books have pointed out the idea that current man-made global warming may be putting off the next ice age, few authors have explored the idea in as much depth and clarity as this one. He does an excellent job of putting the current situation into the context of both long-term trends and the normal factors that cause climate variation to show what the current situation is likely to lead to. This in and of itself is almost worth the price of the book. In relatively few pages, the author is able to put to lie the cottage industry of climate denial that often focuses on wrongheaded claims about natural causes for climate variation.If you are interested in the topic of global warming and would like an interesting and easy-to-read book by by someone who is an expert in a discipline related to climatology, this is an excellent choice.
At first blush, this is another in a long line of books written to introduce people to the concepts of global climate change. It covers many of the basics and includes information such as how models work, how scientists discover past climate information and what will happen on Earth as the climate warms.The twist with this book is that it goes out for thousands of years and explains why we have to worry about climate change for thousands of years. The vast majority of books take us through this century, and maybe slightly into the next century, but very few look hundreds of centuries into the future.This is generally well written, although a little repetitive at times and presents a different look at climate change.
We have all seen the projections for the current century, which generally don't affect property values beyond the beachfront. If you don't have children or close relatives, that is all that matters to your genes. Otherwise the long term matters a great deal. Global warming ranks with nuclear war and asteroid impact as likely terminators for our species within a millenium, and the only one for which prevention has additional quality of life benefits.That said, the presentation is a bit confusing. The various past events, the evidence for them, and their significance are scattered through the book in a confusing order. There is also an error in the final paragraph -- a gallon of gasoline yields about 31,000 kilocalories, not 2500 -- so its ratio of warming to useful work is ONLY 3 million rather than 40 million. And of course the emphasis on effects leaves little space for the evidence AGW, which is readily available elsewhere.Back to the plus side, the book is compact (less energy both to produce and to read) and the evidence is consistent with the conclusions.BTW, the latest models in the book indicate no ice age in 50K years even without AGW.
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