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This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Carmen M. Reinhart Kenneth S. Rogoff
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Review
"Winner of the 2011 Gold Medal Arthur Ross Book Award, Council on Foreign Relations""Winner of the 2010 Paul A. Samuelson Award, TIAA-CREF""One of USA Today's "Year's Best Business Books To Make Sense of Financial Crisis"""Listed on Bloomberg.com by James Pressley as one of "our favorite financial-crisis books this year"""Shortlisted for the 2010 Spear's Book of the Year Award in Financial History""Finalist for the 2011 Estoril Global Issues Distinguished Book Prize""Runner-Up for the Book of the Year, The Atlantic""Finalist for the 2009 Business Book Award ("Best of the Rest") in Current Interest, 800-CEO-READ""Kenneth Rogoff, Recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, Center for Financial Studies""One of Library Journal Best Business Books - Economics/U.S. Economy category"
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From the Back Cover
"This Time Is Different is a tremendously exciting, topical, and controversial book on the history of debt and default. This one belongs on everyone's shelf."--Barry Eichengreen, author of The European Economy since 1945"This is quite simply the best empirical investigation of financial crises ever published. Covering hundreds of years and bringing together a dizzying array of data, Reinhart and Rogoff have made a truly heroic contribution to financial history. This single marvelous volume is worth a thousand mathematical models."--Niall Ferguson, author of The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World"This Time is Different is terrific, for it gives just the perspective we need on the current world economic crisis. People can't expect to understand the current crisis without some in-depth look at past crises. That is exactly what this excellent and timely book provides."--Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance and coauthor of Animal Spirits"You will be hard-pressed to find a more comprehensive and insightful analysis of financial crises. Reinhart and Rogoff's superb book is a must-read for anyone looking to understand past and present crises, as well as navigate those of tomorrow."--Mohamed El-Erian, author of When Markets Collide"I would say that her [Carmen Reinhart's] book with Ken Rogoff on debt crises and financial crises is an extraordinary piece of work."--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the House Budget Committee (6/9/2010)"The most important authorities probably in the world now on financial crashes are Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. . . . And I read it [This Time is Different]."--Former President Bill Clinton, speech at Youngstown, OH, October 31, 2012"A classic."--Nouriel Roubini
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Product details
Paperback: 512 pages
Publisher: Princeton University Press; Reprint edition (August 7, 2011)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 9780691152646
ISBN-13: 978-0691152646
ASIN: 0691152640
Product Dimensions:
5.5 x 1.5 x 8.5 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
3.7 out of 5 stars
273 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#167,863 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
I only give five stars for a book I believe will be relevant or universal throughout time. This book has proven without a doubt that countries or regions that go into serious debt, regardless of what century we are in, will cause financial crises. The book analyzes all aspects from many different regions but more in modern times. The title may be a little misleading as it does not provide equal data of centuries old crises just because we don’t have enough information. Massing large amounts of debt occurred in the Renaissance period and up into today but we only have good statistics about recent debt. Therefore, most of the book discusses the recent phenomena of economic crises. The book is trying to show that economic crises have commonalities regardless of the region but this gets unfocused as the book jumps from region to region and country to country. I wish they would’ve taken one example from the beginning until the crisis was resolved and explain step-by-step what occurred and what triggered the crisis and then mention if that phenomena occurred in other countries or regions. Instead the book has many graphs and charts that are convincing but do not dive into the subject and leave with a shallow understanding. But as I mentioned this book should be read by anyone that wants to understand basic foundations for an economic crisis and should definitely be read by our government and executive branch.
This is a truly stellar book that everyone interested in economic and economic history should read. The level of historical analysis is quite high and the amount of detail is immense. That said, it is not an easy read. This is a dense, complex book. The authors write as academics, not entertainers. If you are looking for an economic version of "Game of Thrones", you won't find it. If you are looking for substance, this is very good starting (and ending) point.The real point of the authors, is that every era thinks "This Time Is Different" and the truth is almost always otherwise. Debt, deficits, and default have been recurring themes throughout human history. They have happened many times before. They will happen many times again. The countries you think will never default, frequently do. Germany is generally regarded as one of the safest creditors in the world (these days). German history suggests otherwise. Greece has been in ruins (economic ruins) for almost 200 years.The idea that Greece was ever a reasonable credit risk was (is) absurd. Yet, Greece could borrow at rock bottom interest rates for years after it joined the Euro system. Even now, Europe's leaders are trying to prevent a final default (wipe out) on Greek debt. History says that they will lose.
Carmen Rogoff is a leading expert on Third World financial crises. Ken Reinhart, former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, is a top international macroeconomist. Their reputation was tarnished in 2010 when their paper “Growth in a Time of Debt†was found to be not replicable without following their 1. coding error (excluding Australia, Canada and others from the data) 2. unconventional weighting of countries 3. selective/ excluding use of data. (unfortunately GIGO) Questioning their methodology then became generalized (their use of growth regression methodology) which grand scheme “solved†what to this reader looks like a chicken-egg analysis problem.This book was written before their deification by pro-austerity, less-compassionate politicians. This book lays out the data and the small empirically based “aha'sâ€, which investors can use to practical results. And their successful effort in this book is enormous, teasing out reliable historical data, never found before, especially from the Third World. Never underestimate the power of details. I admire this book completely for its precision. And the conclusion I can draw: Caveat Emptor. The future rhymes with the past. Do not confuse causation and correlation.
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